Business cycle dating committee

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A recession begins just after the economy reaches a peak of activity and ends when the economy reaches its trough. Hence, some of the criteria of dating business cycles for CEPR differ from those for the NBER, although similar definitions of a recession are adopted by both these organizations. What data does the Committee use? A BCDC analyses and compares the behaviour of key macroeconomic variables such as consumption, investment, unemployment, money supply, inflation, stock prices, etc. The Committee wants to ensure that its characterization of Euro-area economic activity which is its sole objective is not affected by rising heterogeneity in the Euro-area. Between trough and peak, the economy is formally in an expansion; between peak and trough it is in a recession.

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By maintaining a chronology of business cycles, India will be able to better monitor the economy. For instance, Q3 is a peak in the Euro-area as a whole, but not for Germany. See, for instance, the October or June findings of the Committee. When does it release its findings? It is thus possible that the euro area is in a recession while some of the individual countries are not, and that the business cycle dates differ for the Euro-area and for individual countries.

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The practice of examining the joint evolution of several key macroeconomic aggregates has been followed by the committee since its inception. Previously, it did so only after meetings that did date a turnaround. Hence, some of the criteria of dating business cycles for CEPR differ from those for the NBER, although similar definitions of a recession are adopted by both these organizations. TAG suggested a methodological framework for the construction of coincident, leading and lagging indicators along with a composite index for the Indian economy. For details of the data used by the Committee, click here. Also, the BCDCs are created by independent non-profit organizations. Does the Committee date recessions for individual countries in the euro area? How does that relate to your recession dating procedure?

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Since October , the Committee releases its findings after each meeting — whether or not it has decided to date a trough or a peak. A detailed analysis of heterogeneity in individual countries' business cycles is included in the Committee's releases since its creation. For instance, Q3 is a peak in the Euro-area as a whole, but not for Germany.

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Name: Marilyn
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